Evaluation of international climate regimes for differentiation of post-2012 commitments

Study on Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways (GRP) in the UNFCCC Process up to 2025, Commissioned by DG Environment:

Policy makers Summary

This summary describes the results of the research project GRP in which different possible climate regimes and greenhouse gas reduction targets have been explored.

• Policy makers Summary   

Technical report

This report describes the full results of the research project GRP in which different possible climate regimes and greenhouse gas reduction targets have been explored.

• Technical Report  

MNP report Part 1

This report explores the implications of various international climate regimes for differentiating post-Kyoto (after 2012) commitments compatible with the EU long-term climate objective to limit global-mean temperature increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. 

• Exploring climate regimes for differentiation of commitments to achieve the EU climate target       

MNP report Part 2 

This study explores technical, economic and environmental implications of different post-Kyoto climate regimes for differentiation of future commitments that would lead to a stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations (Kyoto gases) in the atmosphere at 550 and 650 ppmv CO2-equivalents (S550e and S650e profile). Constrained by these two profiles, the implications of two different regimes, the Multi-stage and Per Capita Convergence approaches, are evaluated.  

• Regional costs and benefits of alternative post-Kyoto climate regimes: Comparison of variants of the Multi-stage and Per Capita Convergence regimes       

Paper on costs

This article analyses the abatement costs of three post-Kyoto regimes for differentiating commitments compatible with stabilising atmospheric greenhouse gases concentrations at 550 ppmv CO2 equivalent in 2100. 

• Abatement costs of post-Kyoto climate regimes       

Paper on Multi-Stage

This article presents the regional emission targets corresponding to different climate regimes for differentiating commitments beyond 2012 on the basis of the Multi-Stage approach. This approach assumes a gradual increase in the number of Parties involved and their level of commitment according to participation and differentiation rules. Major strengths and weaknesses of the climate regimes are discussed and important obstacles and pre-conditions for their feasibility and acceptability are highlighted.

• Multi-Stage: A Rule-Based Evolution of Future Commitments under the Climate Change Convention        

Analysis of proposals:

South-North Dialogue Proposal

The 'South–North Dialogue Proposal' outlines an approach for an 'equitable' differentiation of post-2012 commitments. An analysis of the proposal shows that for the stringent stabilisation targets many developing countries will have to take on quantitative mitigation obligations by 2030, even when the Annex I countries adopt ambitious mitigation commitments far beyond the Kyoto obligations. A 'political willingness' scenario, based on what countries might be willing to do, will probably not suffice to limit warming of the earth’s atmosphere under 2 degrees C. 

• Differentiation of countries' future commitments in a post-2012 climate regime: an assessment of the "South-North dialogue" proposal       

Triptych approach

How can an international agreement on climate change distribute responsibilities and emission reduction requirements between countries to be effective, technically feasible and is viewed as fair?

• The Triptych approach revisited: A staged sectoral approach for climate mitigation
  

Interdepartmental Policy Research (IBO) ‘Future International Climate Policy’ led by the Ministry of Finance 

Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios

The cost and effectiveness of climate policy in Europe depend on the international post-2012 climate regime. This report analyzes four alternative policy scenarios. The analysis shows that only if all major countries become actively involved in emissions abatement before 2020, the EU 2 degree climate target is feasible.

• Post-2012 Climate Policy Scenarios