Long-term mitigation scenarios and Multi-gas emission pathways for meeting the EU 2 degree target

Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet concentration targets

The aim of this study is to develop multi-gas emission envelopes (consistent sets of emission pathways) for the six greenhouse gases (GHGs) covered under the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6) that are compatible with stabilising GHG concentrations. The ultimate aim is to avoid dangerous climate change. 

• Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: Costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase

Peaking profiles to meet temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Some of the slow climate change response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations can be prevented by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations after a peak is reached. Such so-called ‘peaking scenarios’ can have a 10-20% greater probability of meeting climate targets (e.g. restricting the rise in temperature to a maximum of 2 degree) or have the same probability of achieving the climate targets at up to 40% lower costs. Peaking profiles can be especially important for making ambitious climate targets achievable.

• Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs

Energy Modelling Forum (EMF) – Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise RadiativeForcing

The costs of a climate policy strategy targeting all greenhouse gases are substantially lower than a strategy targeting energy-related CO2 alone. This is one of the conclusions of a recent study by the Stanford University-based Energy Modeling Forum (EMF). MNP provided important input in the form of IMAGE 2 model applications, including TIMER and FAIR.

• Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing – Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework

Updated Multi-scenarios for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels

The EU target of limiting global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celcius can only be achieved with high certainty when greenhouse gas concentrations stabilise at low levels. Required emission reductions are technically feasible at a likely range of direct costs in the order of 1-2% of global GDP. This will require immediate action and ambitious climate policy, a broad range of options and worldwide participation in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This is the main finding of a study documented here to investigate options for low stabilisation targets.

• Stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of options and costs

OECD Environmental Outlook 2030

International environmental policy has a chance of succeeding if Brazil, Russia, India and China participate, and if swift action is taken. Then, serious climate policy will be affordable and feasible. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and OECD have assessed a package of policy measures in the area of free trade, climate, water and air. These analyses form the basis of the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.

• Background report to the OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030; Overviews, details, and methodology of model-based analysis