Input data

Baseline scenarios (population, GDP and GHG emissions)

FAIR region model:  

• Updated IMAGE/TIMER IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario 
• Updated IMAGE/TIMER IPCC SRES emission scenarios         

The updated IMAGE/TIMER implementation of the IPCC-SRES B2 scenario is based on medium assumptions for population growth, economic growth, and more general trends such as globalization and technology development (van Vuuren et al., 2007). In terms of quantification, the updated scenario roughly follows the reference scenario of the World Energy Outlook 2004; after 2030, economic assumptions converge to the original B2 trajectory. The updated IMAGE/TIMER implementation of the IPCC SRES emission scenarios are described in van Vuuren et al. (2007). 

FAIR EU model: 

• 2003 EU baseline scenario by DG-TREN, i.e. the LREM scenario (Mantzos et al., 2003)         

FAIR country model:

• Downscaled updated IMAGE/TIMER IPCC SRES emission scenarios         

For the future baseline emissions, the downscaling methodology of Van Vuuren et al. (2007b) is applied on the updated IMAGE 2.3 IPCC-SRES scenarios, downscaling from the 26 world regions towards 224 countries

Emission pathways 

FAIR region and country model: 

• Global emission pathways that stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations at 450, 550 and 650 ppm CO₂-equivalent         

For the 450 ppm profile, concentration may first ‘overshoot’ to a concentration of up to 510 ppm and then decrease, before stabilising at 450 ppm CO₂-equivalent. The global emission pathways are based on estimates of technically feasible reductions and are developed by den Elzen et al. (2007). 

FAIR EU model: 

• EU reduction pathway as calculated with the FAIR region model or based on user assumptions (like the 2020 EU reduction objectives as adopted in 2007).         

Historical data

The historical greenhouse gas emissions data is based on the International Energy Agency (IEA) and EDGAR databases, i.e.: 1.CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion for the period 1990–2003 as published by the IEA (2005); 2. CO2 (other than from fossil fuel combustion, excluding CO2 emissions from land-use changes), CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC and SF6 emissions for the period 1990–2000 from the EDGAR database version 3.2 (Olivier et al., 2005).

References

• MNP References
• External References