Applications: Long-term Human Development

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While many developing countries are completing the demographic transition, Sub-Saharan Africa and, to a lesser extent, South Asia are lagging behind. With an expected further decline in fertility and an improvement in health, the global population will increase from 6.5 billion now to approximately 8.0 billion people in 2030 (see figure). The highest growth will occur in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Most of this growth will occur in urban areas.

Developing countries are projected to have relatively high economic growth. For example, China’s overall economy is projected to grow with 6% per year between 2000 and 2015, and for Sub-Saharan Africa this is with 4.5% per year. However, per-capita income growth is substantially lower given the simultaneous high population growth rates.

If current income distributions are kept constant, future poverty rates are in line with past trends for most world regions. Enormous progress is expected in East Asia, mostly in China, and to a lesser extend also in South Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa shows a discontinuity, attributable to recently achieved economic growth. In volume terms, East Asia is also decreasing, resulting from the fast decreasing poverty rate, combined with a low and further decreasing population growth.

Access to food, drinking water and sanitation, and improved energy sources, are projected to increase significantly. Despite these large improvements, worldwide, in 2015, 700 million people will be undernourished, 2.5 billion people dependent on solid fuels, and 450 million people lacking improved drinking water and sanitation facilities (see figure).

Major health gains are the result of increased access to food, improved drinking water and sanitation, and improved energy sources. Furthermore, improved health services have reduced other health risks, such as perinatal conditions and measles. However, these gains will be partly undone by the impacts of HIV/AIDS and urban air pollution.