Models
The Global Integrated Sustainability MOdel (GISMO) was used for obtaining a comprehensive and consistent assessment of the long-term development dynamics and the implications for the realisation of the MDGs. The GISMO model is developed to analyse human development and Quality of Life, in interaction with the environment. Applying a systems dynamic modelling approach, this model is used for assessing long-term and often inert changes in the system, for example, the demographic transition and education dynamics, and for analysing trade-offs between energy, agriculture and socio-economic development.
GISMO1.0In GISMO1.0, the social domain is described by the PHOENIX model and the economic domain by IFs Economy. Both models are fully integrated. For the environmental domain, the IMAGE and TIMER models are used. GISMO applies a modular set-up of integrating various models in a flexible and transparent way. GISMO distinguishes the 27 major world regions which have been chosen based on aspects, such as homogeneity, data availability and practical feasibility. In addition, other models, such as IMAGE and GLOBIO , include grid-based dynamics.
PhoenixThe PHOENIX model is an integrated, systems dynamic modelling framework, developed to analyse various long-term population issues. It is a cohort-component model that addresses the demographic transition as a composite of its underlying components: the epidemiological and fertility transitions. Future fertility behaviour and mortality patterns can be explored under varying socio-economic and environmental conditions. The model has been refined with a better epidemiological foundation, the inclusion of diseases as well as death, and an education module, capturing the dynamics of the education process. The health model covers socio-economic and environment-related health risks such as hunger, lack of improved drinking water and sanitation, indoor and outdoor air pollution, and malaria. The education model covers primary, secondary and tertiary school enrolment and tracks educational attainment through the population. IFs economyTo describe economic developments and poverty, the IFs Economy model is used. The model determines regional poverty, using a log-normal income distribution, parameterised by per-capita income and income distribution (GINI coefficient). The model also determines government expenditures for education and health services and, thereby, links to the education and health modules of the PHOENIX model. Education expenditures are based on the enrolment ratios and expenditures per student, both dependent on per-capita income levels. Regional health expenditures increase with increasing per-capita income. IMAGE and TIMERThe Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE) provides a dynamic and long-term assessment of the systemic consequences of global change up to 2100. The model computes geographically explicit land-use changes based on regional production of food, fodder, grass and timber, with consideration of local climatic and terrain properties, and changes in natural vegetation due to climate change. Furthermore, it calculates changes in atmospheric composition, based on greenhouse gas emissions from land use and energy production, and accompanying changes in climatic properties. The TIMER model addresses long-term energy dynamics. It provides regional energy consumption, energy efficiency improvements, fuel substitution, supply and trade of fossil fuels, and renewable energy technologies. On the basis of energy use and industrial production, the model computes emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), ozone precursors and acidifying compounds. On the basis of land use and energy related GHG emissions, the IMAGE model determines global and gridded temperature increases, precipitation and global sea-level rise. |
