GDP

Gross Domestic Product 

This section describes the value added of industry and services. For 1890-1970, the contribution of value added of industry and services to the total GDP are only computed for the reference countries listed in Maddison (1994). For 1970-1990, data are derived mainly from the World Bank (1998). In the Energy Economy model of the Energy-Industry Subsystem of IMAGE 2, the value added of industry and services are used as input for simulating the activity in the industrial and commercial sectors. Historical data on value added of industry and services are scarce.

• Step 1: calculation of GDP per capita in 1995 US$ for the period 1970 - 1995     

Most of the data are directly derived from World Development Indicators (WDI, 1998) which present time series for most of the world's countries from 1960 until 1995. All national data should be converted from the national currencies (LCU) into US$ in order to facilitate the calculation of the average values and to enable cross-national comparisons. In addition, all data should be presented in constant prices to deal with inflation.

Box 1. Conversion method for total 

GDP_(1995)US$_c,y = GDP_(1987)LCU_c,y * DEFLATOR_c * CF(1995)_c 
where:    

• GDP_(1995)US$_c,y = GDP (constant 1995 US$) for country c in the year y 
• GDP_(1987)LCU_c,y = GDP (constant 1987 LCU) for country c in the year y 
• DEFLATOR_c  = GDP-deflator from (1987)LCU to (1995)LCU for country c 
• CF(1995)_c = Conversion factor from LCU of country c to US$ in the year 1995.      

Where data were missing, a growth percentage for GDP per capita derived from the Penn World tables (Heston and Summers, 1991) was used instead. The calculation of this percentage for each country c is represented by the equation in Box 2. 

Box 2. Conversion method for growth percentage of GDP per capita

Y_c = [(GDP₁₉₉₅/GDP₁₉₇₅)^{(1/(1995 -1975))} - 1 ] * 100
where:

• Y_c  = Growth of GDP per capita, in % per year  
• GDP₁₉₇₅ = GDP per capita in year 1975  
• GDP₁₉₉₅ = GDP per capita in year 1995           

For the Eastern Europe region, WDI (1998) presents complete historical data series for the period 1970 - 1995 only for Hungary. Albania, Bulgaria and Poland have data since 1980, Romania since 1975. Missing data for Albania are estimated with the growth rates for GDP/cap from the PWT (1991). Bulgaria, Poland and Romania are estimated with the GDP/cap data presented by Maddison (1994). WDI (1998) presents data for the Czech Republic and Slovakia for the period 1984 - 1995, which are taken as one because Maddison (1994) only presents historical GDP/cap data for Czechoslovakia. 
  
Another exception was made in the region South East Asia, where Taiwan was not listed in the WDI (1998) as a separate country. Because its economy differed quite substantially from the other countries in that region, we used data from the Taiwanese Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD, 1992) to estimate the yearly growth on GDP per capita for the period 1970 - 1988. For the year 1989, a ratio between the total GDP of Hong Kong and Taiwan was used (CEPD, 1992). After 1989 the growth percentages from the Penn World Tables were applied (avg. Greater Mekong region). 
  
In the region Former USSR, the WDI presents only data for the whole period of this study for Armenia, Georgia, Latvia, and the Russian Federation. The remaining republics Azerbijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and the Ukraine have data since 1987. They are assumed to follow the same trend in GDP per capita as the Russian Federation in the period 1970 - 1986, see Box 3. 

Box 3. Trend used for former Soviet Republics before 1987

GDP_cap,R,y = GDP_cap,RF,y * (GDP_cap,R,1987 / GDP_cap,RF,1987) 
where:   

• GDP_cap,R,y = GDP per capita (1995 US$), for former soviet republic R, in year y 
• GDP _cap,RF,y = GDP per capita (1995 US$), for the Russian Federation, in year y 
• GDP _cap,R,1987 = GDP per capita (1995 US$), for former soviet republic R, in year 1987 
• GDP _cap,RF,1987 = GDP per capita (1995 US$), for the Russian Federation, in year 1987
         

As a final last step, the total GDP per region was corrected for the missing countries (see this table for a listing of the number of missing countries and percentages population per region). The calculated regional GDP/cap (based on real data) were assigned to the missing countries, and added to the calculated total GDP, by multiplying it with their population. 

• Step 2: calculation of GDP per capita in 1995 US$ for the period 1890 - 1970       

Starting point are the 1970 - 1995 GDP per capita estimates as described above. Maddison presents total GDP, population and GDP per capita estimates for 56 countries for the period 1820 - 1992, accounting in 1992 of 90 percent of world product. Units used are 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars. We used the trend of Maddisons GDP per capita for the period 1890 - 1970 and forced them to match our 1970 estimates for the different regions (in 1995 US$). 

• Download: results table for total GDP and GDP/capita (xls, 162kb) 

References

• References