Demography
PHOENIX is a tool to assess future changes (simulation period is 1950-2100) in the population size and structure in relation to the socio-economic conditions and state of the environment for 25 world regions of IMAGE 2.4.
Fertility SubmodelHuman fertility is a biological process governed by social, economic, cultural and environmental variables. The effects of these variables on fertility levels are mediated by a set of proximate variables. The relationship between these proximate variables and fertility, which is well understood, forms the core of the fertility model (Bongaarts and Potter,1983). The main outcome of the fertility submodule is the number of births. The model adopts the perspective that fertility change is the result of a 'modernization' process. Modernization is seen as a complex of interrelated processes of societal change, driven by gross domestic product, (female) literacy and life expectancy at birth. These are combined into the human development index (HDI) (see, for example, UNDP, 2000), which is used as indicator for the modernization process. The concept of 'human development' represents an extension of a purely economic view on development. The two main characteristics which have been added to the Bongaarts approach are the linkage of fertility rates to the level of socio-economic development and the modelling of contraceptive use (Rosero-Bixby and Casterline, 1993).
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