Demography
PHOENIX is a tool to assess future changes (simulation period is 1950-2100) in the population size and structure in relation to the socio-economic conditions and state of the environment for 25 world regions of IMAGE 2.4.
Mortality SubmodelThe Mortality submodel simulates the number of persons exposed to various health risks and the number of deaths related to these exposures. The health risks associated with the exposed population are based on the broad and proximate health determinants of the health transition (Frenk et al., 1993). The three major clusters of health determinant are distinguished namely: environmental risks (malnourishment, water supply and sanitation, malaria and indoor and outdoor air pollution), behavioral risks (overweight and inactivity, addictive substances and HIV/AIDS) and low socio-economic status as a combination of income/poverty and illiteracy. The distinction between high and low socio-economic status is derived from the income status and the fraction of the total population that is literate. Further health risks include malnutrition, absence of safe drinking water, occurrence of malaria, habitual smoking and high blood pressure and poor availability of health services. Health risks are clustered into 12 categories on the basis of the empirically estimated contribution to mortality and disease levels in societies, as inferred from international statistics. |
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