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Demography

PHOENIX is a tool to assess future changes (simulation period is 1950-2100) in the population size and structure in relation to the socio-economic conditions and state of the environment for 25 world regions of IMAGE 2.4.

Demography
Description of PHOENIX and relations with other models   Fertility Submodel
Model structure

Mortality Submodel

Population Submodel

Population Submodel

The population submodel uses an integrated systems approach, in which the results of the fertility and mortality submodels are structured into pressure, state, impact and response (P-S-I-R) modules: 

  • A pressure module describing the health determinants, which are divided into both socio-economic factors (income and literacy status) and environmental factors (food and water availability, malaria risk).
  • A state module simulating fertility behaviour and population dynamics for disease and disease-specific mortality; both of these serve as input to the population module distinguishing sex and age groups.
  • An impact module describing the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the state module, such as the burden of disease and life expectancy, and the size and structure of the population.
  • A response module consisting of population policies influencing the fertility behaviour and health policies influencing the disease processes.

  • to  references    

related dossiers

related theme sites

FAIR: theme-based website of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Link to this website. HYDE: theme-based website logo of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Link to this website. logo theme site GISMO Phoenix: theme-based website of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Link to this website. DGAR - Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research. Link to this website.

Key publication