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Home > Themesites > IMAGE > Model Details > Energy Supply and Demand > Main assumptions
Energy Supply and Demand
The IMAGE Energy Regional Model (TIMER) is an global energy model. Its main objective is to analyse the long-term trends in energy demand and efficiency and the possible transition towards renewable energy sources.
TIMER: Main assumptionsSome of the main assumptions of TIMER are listed in the table below. | Option | Assumptions | References | | Fossil fuels | Regional resources and production costs for various qualities; the ultimate coal, oil and natural gas resources come to 300, 45, and 117 ZJ, respectively. In time, depletion leads to price increases, while technology change reduces prices. Under a medium scenario (B2), global average crude energy prices in 2050 are around 1.4, 5.1 and 4.4 1995US$ / GJ for coal, oil and natural gas, respectively. In 2000, these prices are 1.1, 3.0 and 2.3 1995US$ / GJ.
| Rogner (1997), TNO (2006) | | Carbon capture and storage (CCS) | Regional reservoir availability and storage costs for various options (different categories of empty oil and natural gas reservoirs, coal reservoirs, coal-bed methane recovery, aquifers). Total capacity: 1500 GtC. Transport and storage costs range, depending on category and region, from 10-150 US$/tC.
| Hendriks et al. (2002a) | | Power plant efficiency and investment costs | Power plant efficiency and investment costs for 20 types of thermal power plants (coal, oil, natural gas, biomass) including carbon capture and storage defined over time.
| Hendriks et al. (2004) | | Energy crops | Potential and costs for energy crops defined by region on the basis of IMAGE 2 maps (including abandoned agricultural land, natural grasslands and savannah). Primary biomass can be converted into liquid biofuels (for transport) and solid bio-energy (for electricity). Technology development is based on learning-by-doing. Under a medium (B2) scenario, maximum potential comes to 230 EJ in 2050 and 600 EJ in 2100. Production costs for liquid fuels varies from 12-16 US$/GJ in 2000 to around 8-12US $/GJ in 2050 (depending on scenario). Production costs for solid fuels is around 4 US$/GJ.
| Hoogwijk (2004) | | Solar / wind power | Solar and wind power based on studies that assess global potential on the basis of 0.5 x 0.5 degree maps. Costs change over time as a result of depletion, learning-by-doing and grid penetration (declining capacity credit and excess electricity production).
| Hoogwijk (2004) | | Nuclear power | Investment costs of nuclear power based on available information in the literature (most important references indicated). Investment costs are assumed to decrease over time. Fuel costs increase over time as a result of depletion.
| MIT (2003a); Sims et al. (2003) | | Hydrogen | Hydrogen modelled on the basis of production from fossil fuels, bio-energy, electricity and solar power (including carbon capture and storage).
| Van Ruijven et al. (in press) | | Energy demand | Parameters for autonomous and price-induced efficiency improvement and structural change are mostly based on model calibration.
| De Vries et al. (2001) |
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