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Summary SRES Scenarios

Summary of storyline assumptions, energy system dynamics and food system dynamics for the A1-, A2-, B1- and B2-family of the SRES scenarios.

SRES Scenarios Storylines A1 Scenario B1 Scenario Summary A2 Scenario B2 Scenario Storyline assumptions A1 family B1 family A2 family B2 family Stabilizing population (9 billion in 2050) Stabilizing population (9 billion in 2050) Growing population (13.5 billion in 2100); slowdown in fertility decline with lower income Growing population (10.5 billion in 2100); in some regions slowdown in fertility decline with lower income Globalization, very high-growth high-tech Globalization, high-growth high-tech Focus on regional [cultural] identity; environment low-priority Focus on regional [cultural] identity; local/regional environment high-priority; non-effective in global environmental issues Market-based capital and labour allocation Balanced government and market in [economic] development - - Orientation on profits and [technological] opportunities Convergence in regional income and rapid diffusion of technology; no trade barriers Orientation on non-material quality of life aspects. Convergence in income and rapid diffusion of resource-efficient technology No convergence in regional income and slow diffusion of technology; trade barriers In some regions poor functioning markets and institutions Orientation on non-material quality of life aspects. Varied regional economic and technology developments   Energy system dynamics A1 family B1 family A2 family B2 family Decline in energy-intensity due to innovations and high capital turnover rate Strong focus on energy efficiency and sufficiency, service economy. Low rate of energy efficiency innovations, due to trade barriers and capital scarcity Focus on energy efficiency and sufficiency, service economy. Preference for clean fuels and fast depletion cause fossil fuel prices to rise. This enables efficiency and zero-carbon options to penetrate, accelerated by learning-by-doing Large preference for clean fuels and depletion cause fossil fuel prices to rise. This further accelerates efficiency and zero-carbon options to penetrate, accelerated by learning-by-doing Coal use rises in many regions: seen as cheapest available fuel as oil and gas become more expensive/ unavailable. initially capital-intensive zero-carbon options penetrate in most regions only slowly Preference for clean fuels and depletion cause fossil fuel prices to rise in some regions, inducing efficiency and zero-carbon options to penetrate, accelerated by learning-by-doing   Food system dynamics A1 family B1 family A2 family B2 family Fast increase in the volume of trade in food and feed Fast increase in the volume of trade in food and feed Moderate increase in the volume of trade in food and feed Moderate increase in the volume of trade in food and feed Fast increase in food and livestock productivity Fast increase in food and livestock productivity with high efficiency of fertilizer use Slow increase in crop and livestock productivity Moderate increase in food and livestock productivity Fast increase in per capita consumption of livestock products as a result of GDP increase Per capita consumption of livestock products is 10% lower than in A1 scenario in 2050 and 20% lower than in A1 in 2100 Slow increase in per capita consumption of livestock products as a result of GDP increase Moderate increase in per capita consumption of livestock products as a result of GDP increase