Energy and emissions
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An earlier version of the TIMER energy and emissions model was systematically examined to establish the most important parameter settings and model assumptions influencing model results. This exploration using the NUmeral Spread Assessment Pedigree (NUSAP) system (Van der Sluijs et al., 2005). Input variables and model components most sensitive to projected CO2emissions were population and economic growth; shifts in economic structure; technology improvement factors; fossil and renewable resource cost/supply curves, and autonomous and price-induced efficiency gains. Combined with the outcome of expert appraisal of the parameter "pedigree", estimates of the "strength" of the parameters were added to their sensitivity. |
