Overview

PHOENIX Plus  

The purpose of the PHOENIX project is to develop an integrated modelling framework allowing to describe, position and analyze various long-term population issues. A systems dynamic modelling approach is applied to describe the demographic transition as a composite of its underlying components: the epidemiological and fertility transitions. Future fertility behaviour and mortality patterns in major world regions are explored under varying socio-economic and environmental conditions by making use of the computer simulation model, PHOENIX plus. The theoretical background and model documentation can be found in the book World Population in Transition (Hilderink, 2000).

This project was carried out as a collaborative effort of Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL, formerly known as MNP and associated with RIVM), the Population Research Centre (Groningen University) and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI).

• Website Population Research Centre
• Website Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI).
  

Components  

PHOENIX plus is an interactive computer simulation model which enables to analyze, simulate and visualize population changes. These simulations can be done at different aggregation levels:

• PHOENIX World: Exploring future demographic changes of the 17 major world regions using existing and user-defined scenarios on total fertility rate, life expectancy and net migration. In addition, the user can interactively modify underlying processes of birth and death and simulate fertility and mortality outcomes
• PHOENIX Countries: Exploring and comparing demographic data (i.e. the different United Nations World Population Prospects for 224 countries) and other data, such as UNDP's Human Development Index and World Bank's Governance Indicators. 
• PHOENIX Europe: Four demographic scenarios according to the IPCC-SRES have been developed for the 40 European countries (including Turkey). Assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration are based on previous studies and made consistent with the PHOENIX World and PHOENIX Netherlands assumptions
• PHOENIX Netherlands: The simulation model has been applied to the countries India, China, Mexico and the Netherlands. Here the results of the Netherlands are presented in detail. The four scenarios for the Netherlands are the joint result of CBS/MNP, associated with RIVM and are developed in close collaboration with other Dutch institutes. A detailed description of this application including the scenario methodology can be found in the report Population and Scenarios: Worlds to win? .
• PHOENIX Grid: Animation of the global grid-based population density from 1700 to 2100. This is done at a gridcell of 0.5x0.5 degree. Historical population simulation is based on HYDE. Future population is simulated making use of the methodology of the People in the Pixel subproject. 

Examples

• Examples of PHOENIX