Socio-economic drivers - REMIND
|Model Documentation - REMIND|
|Institution||Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)|
Hybrid model that couples an economic growth model with a detailed energy system model and a simple climate model.
|Solution method||Inter-temporal optimization that maximizes cumulated discounted global welfare: Ramsey-type growth model with Negishi approach to regional welfare aggregation.|
Population and GDP are main drivers of future energy demand and, thus, GHG emissions in REMIND. We base population and GDP inputs on the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. REMIND’s default population projections (both total population as well as working age population) are based on IIASA  (and the GDP scenarios from the OECD . Both Population and GDP scenario data are available at https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about. These projections are available for all five different SSP scenarios . For default scenarios, we use SSP2 scenario data as they represent a middle-of-the road scenario. To calibrate GDP, which is an endogenous result of the growth engine in REMIND, we calibrate labor productivity parameters in an iterative procedure so as to reproduce the OECD's GDP reference scenarios. Within REMIND GDP is measured in market exchange rates (MER).
Figure 1. Projections of (a) population and (b) GDP used in the REMIND SSP2 (“Middle-of-the-Road”) scenario.
- KC S, Lutz W (2016) The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Global Environmental Change in press. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.06.004
- Dellink et al. (2015) Long-term growth projections in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Submitted to Global Environmental Change (submitted)
- O’Neill BC, Kriegler E, Riahi K, et al (2014) A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change 122:387–400. doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2