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Climate policy/References


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Key publications

Den Elzen et al., 2008
M.G.J den Elzen‚ P. Lucas‚ D.P. van Vuuren (2008). Regional abatement action and costs under allocation schemes for emission allowances for achieving low CO2-equivalent concentrations. Climatic Change‚ 90(3)‚ pp.243-268.
Link to PBL-website:

Den Elzen et al., 2011a
M.G.J. den Elzen‚ A.F. Hof‚ A. Mendoza Beltrán‚ G. Grassi‚ M. Roelfsema‚ B.J. van Ruijven‚ J. van Vliet‚ D. P. Van Vuuren (2011). The Copenhagen Accord: Abatement costs and carbon prices resulting from the submissions. Environmental Science & Policy‚ 14‚ pp.28-39.
Link to PBL-website:

Hof et al., 2009
A. F. Hof‚ K. C. de Bruin‚ R. B. Dellink‚ M. G. J. den Elzen‚ D. P. van Vuuren (2009). The effect of different mitigation strategies on international financing of adaptation. Environmental Science and Policy‚ 12(7)‚ pp.832-843‚ doi:

Van Vliet et al., 2009
J. van Vliet‚ M.G.J. den Elzen‚ D.P. van Vuuren (2009). Meeting radiative forcing targets under delayed participation. Energy Economics‚ 31(suppl. 2)‚ pp.152-162.
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All cited references

Admiraal et al., 2015
A.K. Admiraal, A.F. Hof, M.G. J. den Elzen, D.P. van Vuuren (2015). Costs and benefits of differences in the timing of greenhouse gas emission reductions. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website:

De Bruin et al., 2009
K. C. de Bruin‚ R. B. Dellink‚ R. S. J. Tol (2009). AD-DICE: An implementation of adaptation in the DICE model. Climatic Change‚ 95(1-2)‚ pp.63-81‚ doi:

Den Elzen and Höhne, 2010
M.G.J den Elzen‚ N. Höhne (2010). Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C. Climate Policy‚ 10‚ pp.247-260.

Den Elzen and van Vuuren, 2007
M.G.J. den Elzen‚ D.P. van Vuuren (2007). Peaking profiles for achieving long-term temperature targets with more likelihood at lower costs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)‚ 104(46)‚ pp.17931-17936‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website:

Den Elzen et al., 2007
M.G.J den Elzen‚ M. Meinshausen‚ D.P. van Vuuren (2007). Multi-gas emission envelopes to meet greenhouse gas concentration targets: costs versus certainty of limiting temperature increase. Global Environmental Change‚ 17(2)‚ pp.260-280‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website:

Den Elzen et al., 2011b
M.G.J. den Elzen‚ A.F. Hof‚ M. Roelfsema (2011). The emissions gap between the Copenhagen pledges and the 2°C climate goal: Options for closing and risks that could widen the gap. Global Environmental Change‚ 21‚ pp.733-743.
Link to PBL-website:

Den Elzen et al., 2012a
M.G.J. den Elzen‚ A. Hof‚ A. Mendoza Beltrán‚ B. Van Ruijven‚ J. Van Vliet (2012). Implications of long-term global and developed country reduction targets for developing countries. Mitigation and Adaptation of Strategies for Global Change‚ 18(4)‚ pp.491-512.

Den Elzen et al., 2012b
M.G.J. den Elzen‚ M. Meinshausen‚ A.F. Hof (2012). The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancún Agreements. Climatic Change‚ 114‚ pp.401-408.

Den Elzen et al., 2012c
M.G.J. den Elzen‚ M. Roelfsema‚ A.F. Hof‚ H. Böttcher‚ G. Grassi (2012). Analysing the emission gap between pledged emission reductions under the Cancún Agreements and the 2°C climate target‚ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency‚ Bilthoven, the Netherlands. Link to PBL-website:

Den Elzen et al., 2013
Den Elzen, M.G.J., Hof A.F. and Roelfsema M. (2013). Analysing the greenhouse gas emission reductions of the mitigation action plans by non-Annex I countries by 2020. Energy Policy(56)‚ pp.pp. 633–643.
Link to PBL-website:

Enerdata, 2010
Enerdata (2010). Energy databases‚ Grenoble (URL:

European Commission, 2010
European Commission (2010). Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage.  Brussels. Access date: 2010.  URL:

Hof et al., 2008
A. Hof‚ M.G.J den Elzen‚ D.P. van Vuuren (2008). Analysing the costs and benefits of climate policy: Value judgements and scientific uncertainties. Global Environmental Change‚ 18(3)‚ pp.412-424.
Link to PBL-website:

Hof et al., 2010
A. F. Hof‚ M. G. J. den Elzen‚ D. P. van Vuuren (2010). Including adaptation costs and climate change damages in evaluating post-2012 burden-sharing regimes. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change‚ 15(1)‚ pp.19-40.
Link to PBL-website:

Hof et al., 2011
A. F. Hof‚ M. G. J. den Elzen‚ A. Mendoza Beltrán (2011). Predictability, equitability and adequacy of post-2012 international climate financing mechanisms. Environmental Science & Policy‚ 14‚ pp.615-627.
Link to PBL-website:

Hof et al., 2012
A.F. Hof‚ C. Brink‚ A. Mendoza Beltrán‚ M.G.J. den Elzen (2012). Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030: Conditions for a EU target of 40%‚ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency‚ Bilthoven, the Netherlands (URL:

Hof et al., 2013
A.F. Hof‚ M.G.J. den Elzen‚ M. Roelfsema (2013). The effect of updated pledges and business-as-usual projections, and new agreed rules on expected global greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. Environmental Science & Policy‚ 33‚ pp.308-319.
Link to PBL-website:

Höhne et al., 2012
N. Höhne‚ N. Braun‚ H. Fekete‚ R. Brandsma‚ J. Larkin‚ M.G.J. den Elzen‚ M. Roelfsema‚ A.F. Hof‚ H. Böttcher (2012). Greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies‚ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency‚ Bilthoven, the Netherlands.

Kindermann et al., 2008
G. Kindermann‚ M. Obersteiner‚ B. Sohngen‚ J. Sathaye‚ K. Andrasko‚ E. Rametsteiner‚ B. Schlamadinger‚ S. Wunder‚ R. Beach (2008). Global cost estimates of reducing carbon emissions through avoided deforestation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)‚ 105(30)‚ pp.10302-10307‚ doi:

Meinshausen et al., 2011b
M. Meinshausen‚ T. M. L. Wigley‚ S. C. B. Raper (2011). Emulating atmosphere-ocean and carbon cycle models with a simpler model, MAGICC6 - Part 2: Applications. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics‚ 11(4)‚ pp.1457-1471.

Mendoza Beltrán et al., 2011
A. Mendoza Beltrán‚ M. G. J. den Elzen‚ A. F. Hof‚ D. P. van Vuuren‚ J. van Vliet (2011). Exploring the bargaining space within international climate negotiations based on political, economic and environmental considerations. Energy Policy‚ 39(11)‚ pp.7361-7371‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website:

Roelfsema et al., 2013
M. Roelfsema‚ M.G.J. den Elzen‚ A.F. Hof‚ N. Höhne‚ N. Braun‚ H. Fekete‚ R. Brandsma‚ J. Larkin‚ H. Böttcher (2013). Methodology for analysing greenhouse gas emission reduction proposals and national climate policies of major economies‚ PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency‚ Bilthoven, the Netherlands. Link to PBL-website:

Roelfsema et al., 2014
M. Roelfsema‚ M.G.J. den Elzen‚ N. Höhne‚ A.F. Hof‚ N. Braun‚ H. Fekete‚ R. Brandsma‚ J. Larkin‚ H. Böttcher (2014). Are major economies on track to achieve their pledges for 2020? An assessment of domestic climate and energy policies. Energy Policy‚ 67‚ pp.781–796‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website:

UNEP, 2012
UNEP (2012). The Emissions Gap Report 2012. A UNEP Synthesis Report‚ United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Van Vliet et al., 2012
J. van Vliet‚ M. van den Berg‚ M. Schaeffer‚ D.P. van Vuuren‚ M.G.J. den Elzen‚ A.F. Hof‚ A. Mendoza Beltrán‚ M. Meinshausen (2012). Copenhagen accord pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming. Climatic Change‚ 113‚ pp.551-561‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website:

Van Vuuren et al., 2011a
D. P. van Vuuren‚ E. Stehfest‚ M. G. J. den Elzen‚ T. Kram‚ J. van Vliet‚ S. Deetman‚ M. Isaac‚ K. Klein Goldewijk‚ A. Hof‚ A. Mendoza Beltrán‚ R. Oostenrijk‚ B. van Ruijven (2011). RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Climatic Change‚ 109(1)‚ pp.95-116.
Link to PBL-website:

Van Vuuren et al., 2012
D.P. van Vuuren‚ K. Riahi‚ R. H. Moss‚ J. Edmondsc‚ A. Thomsonc‚ N. Nakicenovic‚ T. Kram‚ F. Berkhout‚ R. Swart‚ A. Janetos‚ S.K. Rose‚ N. Arnell (2012). A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities. Global Environmental Change‚ 22(1)‚ pp.21-35‚ doi:
Link to PBL-website: