Nature Outlook 2010-2040

Scenario method

The Nature Outlook 2010–2040 is based on what is called ‘the scenario cycle’.

Scenario Cycle - pbl.nl

Baseline situation

The main challenges for society in relation to nature were formulated on the basis of an analysis of the present and past (i.e. baseline) situation.

Socio-economic scenarios

Certain autonomous trends may affect nature policy in the coming decades. For this purpose, two (existing) contrasting socio-economic scenarios were selected, each of which provide a picture of possible future socio-economic, physical and administrative developments.
The socio-economic scenarios also include ‘significant events’ affecting nature and the landscape. These are future events which not necessarily have to be very likely, but which could have a major impact on nature and the landscape if they were to occur; the economic crisis, for example. We have devoted attention to such ‘significant events’ because they largely define the uncertainties that need to be taken into account in policy.

Nature Perspectives

Four nature perspectives have been developed. Each nature perspective outlines a desirable future image of nature, together with the policy strategy needed to achieve that vision. Each nature perspective addresses one of the challenges to society in relation to nature and the landscape. The policy strategy indicates among other things which measures, parties and management styles could lead to the realisation of the particular nature perspective. A comparison of the nature perspectives and the socio-economic scenarios reveals the threats, opportunities and uncertainties that surround the implementation of the nature perspectives.

Policy messages

Finally, policy messages (or ‘intervention prospects’) have been formulated for central government and other parties concerned with nature and landscape policy. This was done by comparing the different policy scenarios.

Further information:
Background: Challenges for nature
Developments beyond nature
Ingrijpende gebeurtenissen
Nature perspectives

The Nature Outlook is a statutory product of the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency with cooperation from Wageningen UR.