The global stocktaking process of the Paris Agreement requires sufficient analytical capacity to ensure fair evaluation of country policies, and requires a good understanding of different outcomes and assumptions between the analytical teams that provide input into the negotiations. The COMMIT research project aims to contribute the analytical capacity to this process. Its intended contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue in 2018, preceding the official global stocktake starting in 2023, is to jointly develop insights by discussing analyses of national and global low-carbon pathways among project partners and with policymakers.
The Paris Agreement’s main aim is to keep the global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius and to drive efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Parties to the Agreement, i.e. countries or regions such as the EU, need to formulate emission reduction targets for 2030, and are asked to submit long-term, low greenhouse gas development strategies. The so-called global stocktake process will assess whether the aggregate effect of these national contributions is sufficient to achieve the overall goal of the Paris Agreement, and establishes an ambition cycle to scale up mitigation effort globally.
COMMIT Project objectives
- Improved modelling of national low-carbon emission pathways: improving the quality of modelling tools developed by nationally-focused teams in both emerging and industrialized countries, in order to enhance their collective ability to provide input into international climate negotiations regarding the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and/or directly support the development of countries’ mid-century, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies. For this, active exchange of knowledge between modelling teams (global <=> national; and national <=> national) will be a central component of the project, particularly for emerging and developing country partners.
- Improved analysis of country contributions to the global ambition of the Paris Agreement: improving in general the knowledge of how action in economies representing a large share of global emissions, such as those included in the G20, relates to ambitious global targets set by the Paris Agreement. For this, we will look into the potential for, and progress in, global climate change mitigation and low greenhouse emission development pathways, with global models incorporating insights from the national modelling teams.
For more information about the project objectives and work packages, download the project description.
This work package contributes to the first objective, i.e. improved modelling of national low-carbon emission pathways. It does so by fostering the development of modelling frameworks able to capture a set of interplaying issues for the definition of low-emission pathways in developing and emerging economies and at setting the ground for capacity building. The WP has the following elements:
- Model development among developing and emerging countries partners;
- Capacity building via additional sessions organized back-to-back with project meetings;
- Exchange programme for young researchers;
- Twinning national teams with global teams for knowledge-sharing.
The objective of this work package is to develop consistent, low-carbon development scenarios for the major developed, developing and emerging economies to 2030 and 2050, in order to assess the impacts of the submitted NDCs and also possible mid-century strategies. In parallel, WP2 aims to improve the representation of the national policy context, circumstances and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in national energy-economy models.
Work package 3: Preparation and selection of global scenarios in the context of the global stocktake
The overarching goal of WP3 is to prepare and select the most suitable global scenarios for the integration of global and national mitigation scenarios in the context of the global stocktake in WP4. This will be done by adapting existing scenarios from concurrent research work and – where needed – developing new scenarios to match the national low-carbon scenario analysis in WP2.
Work Package 4: Integration and assessment; organizing the dialogue between national scale and global scale modelling teams
The objective of this task is to organize the two-way dialogue between global-scale and national-scale approaches in order to 1) improve the representation of major countries in global models, 2) deliver the crucial variables from global models to national models so that they capture the international context, and 3) combine the results from national and global models to inform the global stocktake of the NDCs, both in 2018 and later. In other words, this work package will facilitate the model and scenario development activities taking place in WPs 1-3 and will then synthesize the relevant scientific insights for WP5 on dissemination and outreach.
The objectives of this work package are to i) involve stakeholders to help steer the analysis and ii) communicate the outcomes of the project to policymakers and inform UNFCCC negotiations. The dissemination will focus on informing the global stocktake and the development of mid-century low-carbon development strategies to be submitted to the UNFCCC in 2020.