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Long-term, Low-emission Pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russian Federation, and the United States

Contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue by the COMMIT project (COP24 Katowice, December 2018)

Opportunities exist in G20 countries to strengthen existing climate policies.
It can be shown from analyses at the national level that the emission reductions consistent with global pathways to reach the overall targets of the Paris Climate Agreement can be implemented. This is the main conclusion of a set of 11 national fact sheets developed as part of the COMMIT project. Implementing these opportunities will require a massive redirection of current investments and using the possible synergies between climate policies and other national development objectives.

The COMMIT project has submitted five of these fact sheets to the Talanoa Dialogue, part of the Paris Agreement, to provide negotiators with the latest findings on national long-term, low-emission pathways, informing the development process of mid-century low-carbon strategies. Fact sheets for all 11 COMMIT countries are available on the website.

These country fact sheets for 11 major economies present research findings on national long-term, low-emission pathways along the three Talanoa Dialogue questions: where are we, where do we want to go, and how do we get there? The results highlight opportunities for enhancing ambition levels and present success stories, and particularly address country-specific topics, as these play a key role in developing low-carbon policies. These topics include sustainable intensification of agriculture (Brazil), low-carbon oil sands production technologies (Canada), the role of hydrogen and clean renewable-energy-based gas (EU), and the role of nuclear power (Japan). For Brazil, for example, opportunities from AFOLU and non-CO2 mitigation could reduce pressure on productive sectors. In Japan, achieving the NDC with a limited deployment of nuclear power could be more challenging, but also promotes new business opportunities for the renewable energy sectors.

The findings will be presented at the UN Climate Change Conference in Katowice (Poland) in December (COP24), during two side events. The first side event will take place on 13 December, 14:30–16:00 hrs at the EU pavilion, and is titled What a low-carbon world really looks like in the next decades: Modelling tools used and required for long-term planning. The second side event will take place on 13 December, 18:30–20:00 hrs in the Bieszczady room, and is titled NDC and LTS modelling: opportunities, lessons learnt and roadmaps for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico.

About COMMIT

The COMMIT project—Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global Transition pathways—aims to improve the modelling of national low-carbon emission pathways, and to improve the analysis of country contributions to the global ambition of the Paris Agreement. The consortium consists of 18 international research teams, including 14 national modelling teams in G20 countries, who regularly support domestic policy-making, and global integrated assessment modelling teams with extensive experience of global-scale modelling of climate change policies. The project is funded by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA).
The global stocktaking process of the Paris Agreement requires sufficient analytical capacity to ensure a fair evaluation of country policies, and requires a good understanding of the differences in outcomes and assumptions between the analytical teams that provide input into the negotiations. The COMMIT research project aims to contribute the analytical capacity to this process. Its contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue in 2018, preceding the official global stocktake which starts in 2023, is to jointly develop insights by discussing analyses of national and global low-carbon pathways among project partners and with policymakers.

Opportunities for Enhanced Action to Keep Paris Goals within Reach

Contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue by the COMMIT and CD-LINKS projects (COP24 Katowice, December 2018)

Current climate policies are inconsistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement, but model-based scenario analyses also show that there are several opportunities to strengthen current climate policies.

The combined Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) of all countries are not sufficient to achieve the Paris goals. Scenario analyses also show that current policies are insufficient to meet these NDCs. However, a scenario analysis using both global and national models shows how targets could still be achieved.

In the COMMIT and CD-LINKS projects, more than 10 modelling teams around the world are collaborating in order to support international climate policies. Scenarios developed by these teams have contributed to recent reports by IPCC and UNEP. The projects have also submitted their contribution directly to the Talanoa Dialogue, part of the Paris Agreement, to provide negotiators with the latest findings on ratcheting up ambition.

This policy brief presents new research findings related to the three Talanoa questions: where are we, where do we want to go, and how do we get there? It shows projected emission levels under current policies and NDCs, and resulting implementation and ambition gaps to achieving the Paris Agreement’s long-term goals. It identifies opportunities for ratcheting up ambition, highlighting success stories and stressing the need to integrate climate policies with broader sustainable development policies. It shows that a shift in investment patterns is needed, from fossil to low-carbon energy and energy-efficiency investments. The low-carbon and energy-efficiency-investment gap in 2030 is projected to be USD 130 billion per year for NDCs, USD 300 billion per year for the 2 °C target, and USD 460 billion per year for the 1.5 °C target, compared to current policies.

The findings will be presented at the UN Climate Change Conference in Katowice (Poland) this month (COP24), during two side events on 13 December. The first side event will take place at the EU pavilion (14:30–16:00 hrs) and is titled What a low-carbon world really looks like in the next decades: Modelling tools used and required for long-term planning. The second side event will take place in the Bieszczady room (18:30–20:00 hrs) and is titled NDC and LTS modelling: opportunities, lessons learnt and roadmaps for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico.

About COMMIT

The COMMIT project—Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global Transition pathways—aims to improve the modelling of national low-carbon emission pathways, and to improve the analysis of country contributions to the global ambition of the Paris Agreement. The consortium consists of 18 international research teams, including 14 national modelling teams in G20 countries, who regularly support domestic policy-making, and global integrated assessment modelling teams with extensive experience of global-scale modelling of climate change policies. The project is funded by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Climate Action (DG CLIMA).
The global stocktaking process of the Paris Agreement requires sufficient analytical capacity to ensure a fair evaluation of country policies, and requires a good understanding of the differences in outcomes and assumptions between the analytical teams that provide input into the negotiations. The COMMIT research project aims to contribute the analytical capacity to this process. Its contribution to the Talanoa Dialogue in 2018, preceding the official global stocktake which starts in 2023, is to jointly develop insights by discussing analyses of national and global low-carbon pathways among project partners and with policymakers.

About CD-LINKS

The CD-LINKS research, Linking Climate and Development Policies – Leveraging International Networks and Knowledge Sharing, brings together a consortium of 19 leading international research organisations to explore national and global climate transformation strategies and their linkages to a range of SDGs. The project is funded by Horizon 2020, the European Commission’s ‘Framework Programme for Research and Innovation’.
For more information: CD-LINKS website

Poster for the Research Dialogue at UN Climate Change Conference April 2018 (SB 48)

Scenario database

  • To the COMMIT scenario database (under development, currently only accessible for project partners)
  • To the publically available CD-LINKS scenario database.
  • See also the visualization page, highlighting energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement.
  • For more information on scenarios, visit the primer developed by the SENSES project.