The GHG emissions projections were harmonised with historical 1990–2019 emissions. For most Annex I countries, the historical emissions data is based on the Greenhouse Gas Inventories submitted in 2019 to the UNFCCC (UNFCCC, 2021). For many non-Annex I countries, the historical data was taken from the national reports (National Communications and Biennial Update Reports) (UNFCCC, 2021a, UNFCCC, 2021b) (when available), EDGAR database (Olivier and Peters, 2020) (GHG emissions excluding land-use) and FAOSTAT (2022) data (land-use emissions) (for details for the 26 major emitting countries, see Nascimento et al., 2022). GHG emissions projections under current policies were harmonised to the latest historical emissions data. The harmonisation year was changed to 2019 for Annex I countries and the latest data year for non-Annex I countries.
All GHG emission figures are expressed using the 100-year global warming potentials (GWPs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. For most countries, emission projections encompass all greenhouse gas emissions, including those from land use, land-use change and forestry.
To calculate per capita and per GDP indicators, we used the population projections from the UN World Population Prospects 2022 (United Nations, 2022) and GDP projections from IMF’s World Economic Outlook (IMF, 2022), supplemented with the projections underlying the IMAGE SSP2 scenario.
The emission projections based on the NDCs and current policies can be found in Den Elzen et al. (20162022) and Nascimento et al. (20212022). If you plan to use these data in official publications, please
This website needs to be cited as: den Elzen, M.G.J., Dafnomilis, I., Forsell, N., Fragkos, P., Fragkiadakis, K., Höhne, N., Kuramochi, T., Nascimento, L., Roelfsema, M., van Soest, H., and Sperling, F., 2022. Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 27 (6), 33.