The Global Stocktake tool presents several indicators to track progress in implementing the Paris Climate Agreement. The Paris Climate Agreement sets targets at the global scale, but action needs to be taken by individual countries. Therefore, the Agreement envisions a process to review whether the combined action at the national level is sufficient to implement the overall objective, i.e. to keep global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C (referred to as the global stocktake, Article 14).
The indicators presented here are based on model-based scenarios that compare the action needed to meet the overall objectives, with the action promised by individual countries (reported via the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and the actual implemented policies (based on a database of currently implemented policies). The stocktake tool intends to allow a wide range of interested parties to assess progress.
The figures present a set of scenarios:
In the No new policies scenario, it is assumed that no new policies are implemented after the base year. For most models, this scenario is based on the SSP2 scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). This is a middle-of-the road scenario in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space, and reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements.
The National Policies scenario assumes implementation of currently implemented policies. A description of the main assumptions can be found in Roelfsema et al.
The NDC scenario assumes full implementation of conditional country emission, energy and land-use targets from the Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement.
The Bridge scenario assumes that certain good practice policies, which have shown to be effective in some countries, will be implemented globally from 2020 until 2030. After 2030, the bridge scenario transitions to a 2 °C scenario following a cost-effective pathway. A distinction is made between low/medium income and high income countries in terms of timing and stringency of good practice policy targets. The set of policies was defined in dialogue with national model teams, granting a more realistic scenario narrative.
The scenarios covering the climate targets are based on the CD-LINKS project. They include a 2 °C (high probability) and 2 °C (medium probability) target, representing scenarios that keep global warming below 2 °C with respectively 66% and 50% probability, starting with (cost-effective) deep reduction measures in 2020. These scenarios are assumed to have a carbon budget of respectively 1,000 and 1,600 Gt CO2 for the period 2011 to 2100.
The 2 °C delay scenario assumes implementation of NDCs until 2030, followed by implementation of (cost-effective) deep reduction measures to stay below 2 °C with a probability of 66% (1,000 CO2 budget).
The 1.5 °C (medium probability) scenario assumes (cost-effective) deep reduction measures in line with the 1.5 °C temperature limit, and this is represented by a 400 Gt CO2 carbon budget over the period 2011 to 2100.
We gratefully thank the contribution of all CD-LINKS and COMMIT teams in creating the underlying data. CD-LINKS was a project funded under the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 programme. COMMIT is a project funded by the European Union’s DG CLIMA and EuropeAid under grant agreement No. 21020701/2017/770447/SER/CLIMA.C.1 EuropeAid/138417/DH/SER/MulitOC (COMMIT). Also the contribution of the PBL team on data visualization and the financial support of Climate Works for this tool are gratefully acknowledged.
When using or exporting figures and tables from the global stocktake explorer, please cite as shown below:
Mark Roelfsema, Detlef van Vuuren, Allard Warrink, Mathijs Harmsen, Heleen van Soest, Gabriela Iacobuta, Andries Hof, David McCollum. The Global Stocktake. Keeping track of implementing the Paris Agreement. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2020. https://themasites.pbl.nl/o/global-stocktake-indicators
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